The Big Picture
Victoria has been through a full cycle since the mid-2010s: a steep pandemic-era run-up (2020–2022) driven by rock-bottom rates and intense competition, followed by a sharp cooling once the Bank of Canada started hiking in 2022. Since then, the market has settled into a slower, more balanced rhythm with sales volumes well below the 2021 peak, inventory steadily rebuilding to the highest levels in years, and prices essentially flat to modestly softer for houses and condos over the past year.
What this means for Buyers
You have real leverage for the first time in years. Inventory is up across the board (+7% overall, +12% for condos), and homes are taking longer to sell.
Condos are the standout opportunity: prices down nearly 2% and sales down 27% year-over-year means less competition and more negotiating room.
Houses are close to flat on price, so there’s less urgency, but well-priced, well-presented homes are still moving reasonably fast.
What this means for Sellers
Pricing accuracy and presentation matter more than they have in years. With 4,054 active listings and softer sales at the end of June, overpriced homes will sit.
Condo sellers face the toughest conditions. A glut of supply against falling demand means realistic pricing is essential.
House and townhome sellers are in a more balanced spot, but should still expect longer days-on-market than pandemic-era norms and buyers who negotiate.
Projections for second half of 2026
The consistent theme across regional and national associations is a slow, uneven stabilization rather than a clear recovery or a further slide.
Condos remain the most exposed segment with oversupply continuing into 2026, so further softening in that segment is plausible.
If Bank of Canada rate expectations stay stable as they have been this year, some of that “pent-up demand” could start showing up as modestly higher sales in the fall.
For a deep dive into the details around your specific micro-market and product type, Contact Ole for a no-obligation conversation.
